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Alternative Markets

Domains, prediction markets, graded collectibles, watches, wine, crypto market structure: the useful thing these share is not that they are exotic. It is that each one lets you watch a market's plumbing operate without much of it hidden. Authentication, custody, settlement, and the identity of the marginal buyer are all visible in a way they rarely are elsewhere.

This topic treats them as worked examples for one question — how do you evaluate a specialized market you do not already understand? — rather than as investment categories in their own right. Fragmentation alone is not an opportunity. Several of these markets are fragmented, illiquid, and efficiently priced at the same time, which is the outcome worth learning to recognize.

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